Dr. Erika Frydenlund is a Research Associate Professor for the Virginia Modeling, Analysis, & Simulation Center (VMASC). Her primary research focus is on migration and mobility. She has a Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics, Master’s degree in Statistics, and Ph.D. in International Studies. Additionally, she has graduate certificates in Women’s Studies and Modeling & Simulation. Much of her work focuses on combining quantitative and qualitative data in simulations for understanding the emergence, dynamics, and consequences of human migration and displacement. Frydenlund primarily works in agent-based modeling, but has experience in other modeling paradigms as well.

MODELING THE POLITICAL & SOCIAL DYNAMICS OF PROTRACTED REFUGEE SITUATIONS

Thematically, our projects look at the macro, meso, and micro-level causes and effects of protracted refugee situations. We are interested in understanding the international affairs that lock refugees in camps or along country borders, how NGOs contribute or exacerbate length of stay in refugee status, and how refugees themselves change through the process and experience of displacement. We are working on modeling the macro-level processes (international affairs) as well as micro-level processes (refugee identities) and the interconnection of NGOs working between the two using system dynamics and agent-based models. We’re hoping this leads to insights about possible alternative durable solutions to the three proposed/promoted by the UNHCR.

HEALTH DYNAMICS IN PROTRACTED REFUGEE SITUATIONS

This project looks at the effects of protracted refugee status on chronic health conditions. Refugees are provided food through international nongovernmental organizations that provide the bare minimum caloric intake for human survival, often at the cost of severe malnutrition and chronic diseases that result from nutritional deficiencies and idleness. Refugees in these situations often feel that some conditions—inability to digest corn or diabetes—are death sentences. This project will collect primary data in Greece and Rwanda among refugees and refugee stakeholders to develop models and simulations of health and health consequences in a protracted refugee context. These model(s) could be adapted to understand the dynamics and evolution of protraction in other areas of the world. The data collection and model-building effort would also be supplemented by a data visualization component that would allow one to virtually walk through a refugee camp and learn about the health consequences of life in protracted exile.

SHIFTING REFUGEE IDENTITIES IN PROTRACTED SITUATIONS

This project uses agent-based modeling and extensive survey data collected by Zeynep Sagir in Turkey during her dissertation to understand how refugees integrate with local communities, apply religious coping mechanisms during the integration process, and shift their identities and behaviors over time. Our first model-building session occurred in Lesvos, Greece in May 2017, the second in Kristiansand, Norway in August 2017. This ongoing project is focused on developing algorithms that speak to underlying challenges with integrating vast numbers of refugees into a host community for extended periods of time.

CITIZEN INITIATIVES & POP-UP NGOS IN HUMANITARIAN CRISIS

In this project, we are collaborating with two Global Development experts from the University of Agder in Norway to try to model the way that nongovernmental organizations arise and adapt in contexts of immediate humanitarian crisis. This work is inspired by the varied typology of humanitarian actors that emerged in response to the European refugee crisis, specifically as it happened in Lesvos, Greece. The team met in Lesvos, Greece in May 2017and Kristiansand, Norway in August 2017 to work toward a model that will help policymakers evaluate the responses to the refugee crisis in Lesvos. This work currently uses a system dynamics modeling approach to investigate the relationship between actors in the humanitarian response efforts.

INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT PREDICTIONS IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

We are working on a pilot project with UNOCHA and the MARS team at the University of Hamburg, Germany to try to develop an agent-based model that provides better predictive capabilities of internal displacement than traditional statistical models. The project is currently in its early phases, with a prototype model of North Kivu Province, DRC expected by the end of January.

PUBLICATIONS
(* Identifies Students)
Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles
Llinás, Brian,* Jose J. Padilla, Humberto Llinás, & Katherine S. Palacio. (2026). “Modeling Rank
Distribution and the Relative Importance Factor Index in Discrete Power-Law Models: Application
to Social Resilience using the Scopus Database.” Mathematics. Vol 14(6).
DOI:10.3390/math14060966
Romero, Liss D.*, Katherine Palacio, Zacheous Ako Abang, Valeria Silgado,* Humberto Llinas, Leidy
González,* Erika Frydenlund, Daniel Bolivar,* & Jose J. Padilla. (2026). “Social Safety and Social
Security: Validating Context-Specific Instruments for Slums.” Social Indicators Research 182(1).
DOI: 10.1007/s11205-025-03732-5
Erika Frydenlund, Ph.D. Page 6 of 16
Botello, Jhon G.*, Katherine Palacio, Erika Frydenlund, Humerto Llinás, and José J. Padilla. (2024).
“Adapting and Validating a Survey to Assess Host Communities Support for Migration.” Social
Indicators Research. Vol. 174. DOI: 10.1007/s11205-024-03397-6
Frydenlund, Erika, Joseph Martínez*, Jose J. Padilla, Katherine Palacio, and David Shuttleworth*.
(2024) “Modeler in a Box: How Can Large Language Models Aid in the Simulation Modeling
Process?” SIMULATION. Vol 100(7). doi:10.1177/00375497241239360
Romero, Liss D.*, Jose J. Padilla, Katherine Palacio, and Erika Frydenlund. (2024). “Mapping
cooperation: insights into Colombia’s humanitarian response to migration from Venezuela”.
Frontiers in Human Dynamics: Dynamics of Migration and (Im)Mobility, 6.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fhumd.2024.1345110
Lynch, Christopher J., E.J. Jensen, Virginia Zamponi, Kevin O’Brien, Erika Frydenlund, & Ross Gore.
(2023) “A structured narrative prompt for prompting narratives from Large Language Models:
Sentiment assessment of ChatGPT-generated narratives and real tweets.” Future Internet, 15,
375. DOI: 10.3390/fi15120375.
Sa, Lydia Cleveland* and Erika Frydenlund. (2023) “The shortfalls of vulnerability indexes for public
health decision-making in the face of emergent crises: The case of COVID-19 vaccine uptake in
Virginia. Frontiers in Public Health. Women in Science: Public Health Policy 2022. Vol 11.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1042570
Collins, Andrew J., Erika Frydenlund, Christopher J. Lynch, & R. Michael Robinson. (2022)
“Acceptance sampling to aid in the verification of computational simulations.” International Journal
of Modeling, Simulation, and Scientific Computing, DOI:10.1142/s1793962322500441 (pre-print
available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3373344)
Frydenlund, Erika. (2021). “Modeling and Simulation as a Bridge to Advance Practical and Theoretical
Insights about Forced Migration Studies.” Journal on Migration and Human Security. DOI:
10.1177/23315024211035771
Frydenlund, Erika and Christa de Kock (2020). “Agent-Based Modeling Within Forced Migration
Research: A Review and Critique.” Refugee Review. Vol. 4.
Collins, Andrew J. and Erika Frydenlund. (2017). “Strategic group formation in agent-based
simulation.” Simulation: Transactions of the Society for Modeling and Simulation International. DOI:
10.1177/0037549717732408.
Elzie, Terra*, Erika Frydenlund, Andrew J. Collins, and R. Michael Robinson. (2016). “Panic that
Spreads: Socio-Behavioral Contagions in Pedestrian Evacuations.” Transportation Research
Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. No. 2586. DOI: 10.3141/2586-01.
Collins, Andrew J., Erika Frydenlund, R. Michael Robinson and Meçit Cetin (2015). “Exploring a Toll
Auction Mechanism Enabled by Vehicle-To-Infrastructure Technology.” Transportation Research
Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. 2530: 106-113. ISSN: 0361-1981
Collins, Andrew J., Peter Foytik, Erika Frydenlund, R. Michael Robinson, and Craig A. Jordan (2015).
“Generic Incident Model for Investigating Traffic Incident Impacts on Evacuation Times in LargeScale Emergencies.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research
Board, 2459: 11-17.
Elzie, Terra*, Erika Frydenlund, Andrew Collins, and R. Michael Robinson. (2015). “Conceptualizing
Intra- and Inter-Group Dynamics within a Controlled Crowd Evacuation.” Journal of Emergency
Management. 13(2): 109-120.
Peer-Reviewed Conference Papers
Huseynli, Guljannat* and Erika Frydenlund. (2026). “The Efficiency-Equity Tradeoff in AI-Enabled
Humanitarian Information Systems: Toward an Intersectional Governance Audit Framework.”
ISCRAM 2026 Conference Proceedings –International Conference on Information Systems for
Crisis Response and Management. The Hague, The Netherlands.
Erika Frydenlund, Ph.D. Page 7 of 16
Botello, Jhon G.*, Brian Llinas*, Jose J. Padilla, & Erika Frydenlund, “Toward Automating System
Dynamics Modeling: Evaluating LLMs in the Transition from Narratives to Formal Structures,” 2025
Winter Simulation Conference (WSC), Seattle, WA, USA, December 2026.
Martínez, Joseph*, Brian Llinas*, Jhon G. Botello*, Jose J. Padilla, & Erika Frydenlund, “Enhancing
GPT-3.5’s Proficiency in NetLogo Through Few-Shot Prompting and Retrieval-Augmented
Generation,” 2024 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC), Orlando, FL, USA, 2024, pp. 666-677,
DOI: 10.1109/WSC63780.2024.10838967.
Brian Llinas*, Guljannat Huseynli*, Erika Frydenlund, Katherine Palacio, Humberto Llinas, & Jose J.
Padilla. (2023). “Assessing Media’s Representation of Frustration Towards Venezuelan Migrants
in Colombia.” In R. Thomson, S. Al-Khateeb, A. Burger, P. Park, & A. A. Pyke, Social, Cultural, and
Behavioral Modeling: SBP-BRiMS 2023. (Vol. 14161). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-43129-6_13
Domson, Obed*, Jose J. Padilla, Guhoy Song, Erika Frydenlund. (2023). A Bayesian Approach
of Predicting the Movement of Internally Displaced Persons. In: Thomson, R., Al-khateeb, S.,
Burger, A., Park, P., A. Pyke, A. (eds) Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling: SBP-BRiMS 2023.
Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 14161. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-
031-43129-6_24
Clark, Mackenzie*, Erika Frydenlund, & Jose J. Padilla. (2021). Network Structures and Humanitarian
Need. In R. Thomson, M. N. Hussain, C. Dancy, & A. Pyke (Eds.), Social, Cultural, and Behavioral
Modeling: SBP-BRiMS 2021. (Vol. 12720, pp. 214-223). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80387-2_21
Yesilbas, Veysel, Jose J. Padilla, & Erika Frydenlund. (2021). An Analysis of Global News Coverage
of Refugees Using a Big Data Approach. In R. Thomson, M. N. Hussain, C. Dancy, & A. Pyke
(Eds.), Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling: SBP-BRiMS 2021 (Vol. 12720, pp. 111-120).
Cham: Springer International Publishing. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80387-2_11
Fretz, Alexander L.*, Jose J. Padilla, & Erika Frydenlund. (2021). The Integrated Game
Transformation Framework and Cyberwar: What 2×2 Games Tell Us About Cyberattacks. In R.
Thomson, M. N. Hussain, C. Dancy, & A. Pyke (Eds.), Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling:
SBP-BRiMS 2021 (Vol. 12720, pp. 174-183). Cham: Springer International Publishing. DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80387-2_17
Hanne Haaland, Hege Wallevik, Erika Frydenlund, & Jose J. Padilla. (2020). “Modelers and
Ethnographers as Co-Creators of Knowledge: Do We Belong Together?” In Amanda Hughes, Fiona
McNeill, & Christopher W. Zobel (Eds.), ISCRAM 2020 Conference Proceedings – 17th
International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 1113–
1121). Blacksburg, VA (USA): Virginia Tech. Accessible online:
https://idl.iscram.org/files/hannehaaland/2020/2301_HanneHaaland_etal2020.pdf
Frydenlund E., Padilla J., Haaland H., Wallevik H. (2020) “The Rise and Fall of Humanitarian Citizen
Initiatives: A Simulation-Based Approach.” In: Thomson R., Bisgin H., Dancy C., Hyder A., Hussain
M. (eds) Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling. SBP-BRiMS 2020. Lecture Notes in Computer
Science, vol 12268. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61255-9_25
Salimi, Khadijeh*, Erika Frydenlund, Jose J. Padilla, Hanne Haaland, and Hege Wallevik (2019). “The
Role of Elites in the Diffusion of Social Norms of Humanitarianism.” In Proceedings of the Annual
Simulation Symposium, 1-12. Tucson, Arizona: Society for Computer Simulation International. DOI:
10.23919/SpringSim.2019.8732925
Erika Frydenlund, Ph.D. Page 8 of 16
Salimi, Khadijeh*, Erika Frydenlund, Jose J. Padilla, Hege Wallevik, and Hanne Haaland (2018). “How
Does Humanitarianism Spread? Modeling the Origins of Citizen Initiatives Through Norm
Diffusion.” Proceedings of the 2018 Winter Simulation Conference. Gothenburg, Sweden.
December 9-12. DOI:10.1109/WSC.2018.8632287
Frydenlund, Erika, Peter Foytik, Alain Ouattara, and Jose J. Padilla (2018). “Where Are They
Headed Next? Modeling Emergent Displaced Camps in the DRC Using Agent-Based Models.”
Proceedings of the 2018 Winter Simulation Conference. Gothenburg, Sweden. December 9-12.
DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2018.8632555
Padilla, Jose J., Erika Frydenlund, Hege Wallevik, and Hanne Haaland (2018). “Model Co-Creation
from a Modeler’s Perspective: Lessons learned from the collaboration between ethnographers and
modelers.” In: Thomson R., Dancy C., Hyder A., Bisgin H. (eds) Social, Cultural, and Behavioral
Modeling. SBP-BRiMS 2018. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 10899. Springer, Cham. DOI:
10.1007/978-3-319-93372-6_8
Frydenlund, Erika and Jose J. Padilla (2017). “Modeling the impact of protraction on refugee identity.”
In: Lee D., Lin YR., Osgood N., Thomson R. (eds) Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling. SBPBRiMS 2017. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 10354. Springer, Cham. DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-60240-0_25
Vernon-Bido, Daniele*, Erika Frydenlund, Jose J. Padilla, and David C. Earnest (2017). “Durable
solutions and potential protraction: The Syrian refugee case.” Proceedings of the 2017 Spring
Simulation Multi-Conference. Virginia Beach, VA. April 23-26.
Frydenlund, Erika, Jose J. Padilla, and David C. Earnest (2017). “A theoretical model of identity shift
in protracted refugee situations.” Proceedings of the 2017 Spring Simulation Multi-Conference.
Virginia Beach, VA. April 23-26.
Collins, Andrew and Erika Frydenlund (2016). “Agent-based modeling and Strategic group formation:
A refugee case study.” Proceedings of the 2016 Winter Simulation Conference. Washington, D.C.
December 11-14.
Collins, Andrew and Erika Frydenlund. (2016). “Strategic Group Formation in Agent-based
Simulation.” Prepared for the 2016 Spring Simulation Multi-Conference. Pasadena, CA: April 2016.
Erika Frydenlund, Andrew J. Collins, Craig A. Jordan, Peter B. Foytik, and R. Michael Robinson.
(2016). “When the money runs dry: A system dynamics approach to critical infrastructure
investment.” Prepared for the 2016 Spring Simulation Multi-Conference. Pasadena, CA: April 2016.
Collins, Andrew, Erika Frydenlund, Terra Elzie*, and R. Michael Robinson. (2015). “Agent-based
Pedestrian Evacuation Modeling: A one-size fits all approach?” Prepared for the 2015 Spring
Simulation Multi-Conference/Agent-Directed Simulation (ADS) Symposium. Alexandria, VA: April
2015.
Collins, Andrew, Erika Frydenlund, Terra Elzie*, and R. Michael Robinson. (2015). “Group Dynamics
and Exit-blocking Behaviors: A look at pedestrian modeling evacuations.” Prepared for the
Transportation Research Board 2015 Annual Meeting. Washington, D.C.: January 2015.
Collins, Andrew, Erika Frydenlund, R. Michael Robinson, Mecit Cetin. (2015). “Exploring a Toll Auction
Mechanic Enabled by Vehicle-to-Infrastructure Technology.” Prepared for the Transportation
Research Board 2015 Annual Meeting. Washington, D.C.: January 2015.
Frydenlund, Erika, Terra Elzie*, Andrew Collins, and R. Michael Robinson. (2014). “A Hybridized
Approach to Validation: The Role of Sociological Research Methods in Pedestrian Modeling.”
Transportation Research Procedia 2(0): 697-705.
Collins, Andrew, Terra Elzie*, Erika Frydenlund, and R. Michael Robinson. (2014) “Do Groups Matter?
An Agent-based Modeling Approach to Pedestrian Egress.” Transportation Research Procedia
2(0): 430-435.
Erika Frydenlund, Ph.D. Page 9 of 16
Manuscripts Under Review
Martínez, Joseph, Melissa Miller-Felton, Jose J. Padilla, Erika Frydenlund, & Katherine Palacio.
“Multidimensional Analysis of Social Discourse on Twitter (X) around Venezuelan Migration in
Colombia.” (January 9, 2026) – under revise & resubmit at PLOS ONE.
Botello, Jhon G., Jose J. Padilla, Erika Frydenlund, Krzysztof Rechowicz, & Eric Weisel. “How can AI
find my model? A model-finding experimental study considering data formats, embeddings and
retrieval strategies.” (April 7, 2026) – under review at 2026 Winter Simulation Conference.
Botello, Jhon G.,* Firuzan Melike Sümertas, Jose J. Padilla, Christine Philliou, Erika F. Frydenlund, &
Adam Anderson. “Reconstructing Migratory Movements from Ottoman Census Registers: An AIDriven Approach.” (December 29, 2025) – under review at Journal of Digital History.
Silgado, Valeria,* Humberto Llinas, Zacheous Ako Abang, Katherine Palacio, Erika Frydenlund, Jose
J. Padilla, Liss D. Romero, Leidy Gonzalez, & Daniel Bolivar. “Social Cohesion, Community
Resilience, and Subjective Well-Being in a South African Slum: A Structural Equation Modeling
Approach” (July 15, 2025) – under review at Social Indicators Research
Gonzalez, Madison* and Frydenlund, Erika. “Discomfort in Public Spaces of Appearance: An
examination of water security in the Western Cape around the Day Zero Drought” (May 11, 2022).
Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4107942 (Preprint).
Frydenlund, Erika, Jose J. Padilla, Madison Gonzalez*, Veysel Yesilbas. “Which countries drive the
news about refugees?” (June 6, 2022) – under review
Book Chapters
Frydenlund, Erika, Hanne Haaland, Jose J. Padilla, Hege Wallevik (alphabetical). (2023). “Citizen
Initiatives in Humanitarian Aid: Lesvos, Greece as a case in bottom-up humanitarian assistance
mobilization” In H. Haaland, S. Kinsbergen, L. Schulpen, and H. Wallevik (Eds.), The Rise of SmallScale Development Organisations: The Emergence, Positioning, and Role of Citizen Aid Actors.
Frydenlund, Erika and Jose J. Padilla. (2022). “Opportunities and Challenges of using ComputerBased Simulation in Migration and Displacement Research: A Focus on Lesbos, Greece.” In K.
Grabska, and C. Clark-Kazak (Eds.), Documenting Displacement: Questioning Methodological
Boundaries in Forced Migration Research. Montreal, Canada: McGill-Queen’s University Press.
ISBN: 9780228008330
Frydenlund, Erika, Meltem Y.Şener, Ross Gore, Christine Boshuijzen-van Burken*, Engin Bozdag, &
Christa de Kock* (2019). “Characterizing the Mobile Phone Use Patterns of Refugee Hosting
Provinces in Turkey.” In A. A. Salah, A. Pentland, B. Lepri, & E. Letouzé (Eds.), Guide to Mobile
Data Analytics in Refugee Scenarios: The ‘Data for Refugees Challenge’ Study. Switzerland:
Spring International Publishing. ISBN: 978-3-030-12555-4
Frydenlund, Erika, Etta C. Jones*, and Jose J. Padilla. (2019) “Mobility in crisis: An agent-based model
of refugees’ flight to safety.” In Saikou Y. Diallo, Wesley J. Wildman, F. LeRon Shults, and Andreas
Tolk (eds.) Human Simulation: Perspectives, Insights, and Applications. Springer, Cham. ISBN:
978-3-030-17092-9
Erika Frydenlund and David. C. Earnest. (2018) “Emergence in Information Economies: An agentbased modeling perspective.” In Saurab Mittal et al., (eds.) Emergent Behavior in Complex
Systems Engineering: A modeling and simulation approach. Wiley. ISBN: 978-1-119-37886-0
Earnest, David C. and Erika Frydenlund. (2017) “Flipping Coins and Coding Turtles.” In Saurab Mittal
et al., (eds.) Guide to Simulation-based Disciplines: Simulation foundations, methods and
applications. Springer International Publishing. DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-61264-5_11
Erika Frydenlund, Ph.D. Page 10 of 16
Frydenlund, Erika and David C. Earnest. (2015) “Harnessing the Knowledge of the Masses: Citizen
Sensor Networks, Violence and Public Safety in Mugunga.” In Emilian Kavalski, ed. World Politics
at the Edge of Chaos: Reflections on Complexity and Global Life. State University of New York
Press. ISBN-13: 978-1-4384-5607-2
Dickerson, Betty and Erika Frydenlund. (2013) “Examining Marriage Immigration to the United States.”
In Kazuo Nakajima, Jhonsu Yoon, and Rie Kondo (eds.) International Comparative Studies on
Women Marriage Immigrants and Their Families (グローバル時代における結婚移住女性とその家
族 の国際比較研究). Gakujutsu Publishers. ISBN-10: 4284103849